The Ultimate Trap Game

Anyone who watched Buffalo's defense dominate the league's top offense last week would tell you that the Bills should steamroll the lowly 2-12 Oakland Raiders.  That would ultimately put the Bills playoff hopes on the line for one game next week at Gillette Stadium against the New England Patriots.  However, Buffalo will need to do more than just show up to get out of California with their ninth win of the season.  Although it hasn't shown in the win column, Oakland is a young team that has been very competitive in defeat.  Their biggest win of the season came on Thursday Night Football against the Chiefs.  Rookie quarterback David Carr has been the Raiders starter for all fourteen weeks and has shown signs of improvement, even with limited offensive weapons.  Running back Latavius Murray has put together some big games late in the season and he is the guy Buffalo needs to put most of their attention on.  Oakland's offense might be near the bottom of the league, but the defense has shown how good they can be.  It starts with rookie linebacker Khalil Mack.  He has put together a great season and is up for defensive rookie of the year.  Buffalo's O-line held up against Green Bay last week and the same needs to happen this week if they want to win.  The Raiders are susceptible in the run game so with CJ Spiller back, and with Fred, Bryce Brown, and Boobie Dixon, expect the Bills to keep the ball on the ground a lot today.  

Three Keys to the Game: 

1. Punch the Ball in the Endzone:  The offense only produced four field goals last week and got bailed out with a Marcus Thigpen punt return touchdown.  This time, the Bills can't let an inferior team hang around, so scoring touchdowns instead of field goals is big for this struggling offense.  

2. Carr Can't be Calm:  Derek Carr has been pressured a lot throughout the season and today figures to follow that trend.  The best defensive line in the league needs to get pressure and put Oakland in 3rd & long situations.  

3.  No Scoreboard Watching:  Since today's game is at 4:25, the other impactful games will already be decided.  Focus on this game and if Buffalo gets the help they needed, then great.  

My Prediction: I expect Oakland to keep it tight for awhile before a much more talented team in the Bills pulls away in the fourth quarter.  

Buffalo 26    Oakland 14

Say Cheese

Playing on the road against Peyton Manning is bad enough, now the Bills must face their second straight future hall-of-famer in Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.  The Packers come in to this matchup as arguably the hottest/best team in the league.  The explosive Green Bay offense is led at receiver by Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb and by Eddie Lacy at running back.  Lacy is questionable for today's game, so if he can't go, UB product James Starks should receive a lot of carries.  With the Bills stout defense, this figures to be a big matchup of heavyweights.  The Green Bay Packers have a very average defense based on the numbers.  Their main offseason acquisition was defensive end Julius Peppers and along with Clay Matthews, they have a very solid front seven.  The secondary is where they can be exploited, like what Atlanta showed on Monday Night Football last week.  Kyle Orton needs to show great improvement and get the ball out of his hands early if the Bills want to have a chance.  Woods, Watkins, and Hogan should be able to find openings in that porous Packers secondary.  

With the Packers trying to put a strangle hold on the NFC North division, the Bills are teetering on the edge of the playoff picture with just three weeks to go.  Here are my three keys to the game.

1. Apply Pressure With Four:  Aaron Rodgers not only can beat a defense with his arm, but he can do so with his feet.  The Bills defensive line failed to bring Manning to the ground at all last week, so in order to keep the Green Bay offense on the sideline, Buffalo must get to Rodgers without having to blitz.  

2.  Take Some Deep Shots:  Green Bay throws more 20+ yard passes than any other team in the NFL.  The Bills should take a similar approach to last week and establish the run, then take a shot off of play action.  Keeping Rodgers and that offense off the field is the best way to beat Green Bay.  

3. Special Teams: The Packers have a clear offensive advantage and the Bills have a clear defensive advantage.  Whoever can gain an edge in field position, get a big punt return, or win the turnover margin could be the difference in this one.  

My Prediction:  

The Bills are 3-0 this year against the NFC North, but the Packers are the class of this division.  The hottest team in the NFL should continue to roll offensively even on the road, ending any possibility of Buffalo reaching the postseason.  

Green Bay 31  Buffalo 20 

Playoffs? You Kidding Me!

It is week 13 of the NFL season and both the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills have a winning record.  How rare is this? This is the first time ever that Cleveland and Buffalo have played against each other with winning records after Thanksgiving.  Cleveland is one of four teams in the AFC North that sits at 7-4 or better,  just outside of a potential wild card spot.  Buffalo comes in at 6-5, only a game behind a whole slew of teams at 7-4.  With that being said, this might be considered the biggest Browns-Bills game in a long time considering the playoff spots that are up for grabs.  

Cleveland is coached by Mike Pettine, former defensive coordinator for Buffalo.  The Browns have used an above average defense, and an average offense to get to seven wins so far this season.  Brian Hoyer has had his share of struggles at quarterback this season, but more times than not, he has delivered when needed.  Take last week for example where Hoyer threw three picks at Atlanta, but led a last minute drive to set up the game winning field goal.  Josh Gordon, who was the NFL's leading receiver a year ago, returned last weekend from a 10-game suspension and adds another dimension to this Cleveland Browns offense.  They already have a solid running game, and offensive line to go along with Hoyer, but Gordon gives the Browns a true receiving threat all over the field and could make things difficult for Gilmore and Graham at cornerback.  Cleveland has a defense that should apply a ton of pressure against a weak Buffalo offensive line.  Establishing the run for both teams is huge for opening up the passing game for these average quarterbacks.  

Buffalo is coming off of their most impressive victory this season, a 38-3 blow out in Detroit against the New York Jets.  In the game, the Bills were impressive in the red zone, ran the ball effectively, got a huge play on special teams, and dominated defensively.  Kyle Orton was under control the whole game as he made this his fourth straight game without an interception.  The story of the game however, was Robert Woods and his 9 catches for 118 yards and a touchdown.  The Jets weren't about to have Sammy Watkins beat them again, so while he received a majority of double teams, Woods took advantage of single coverage.  It will be interesting to see how Cleveland tries to cover Buffalo's wide receivers.  I expect the Browns number one cornerback, Joe Haden, to be on Sammy Watkins for the majority of this game.  Here are some more keys to this huge AFC contest between playoff hopefuls... Yes, I repeat, the playoffs are still a possibility for both.  

Three Keys to the Game:

1. Win the Battle Up Front:  This is the matchup of the game: Cleveland's O-line v.s. Buffalo's D-line.  Both have been super all year so something has to give.  It is a big reason for why the Browns have had so much success on the ground so if Buffalo can get in the backfield, expect some big plays from Mario, Dareus, and company.  

2. The Pettine Factor:  This one works both ways.  Yes, we know about Pettine's schemes defensively so that could help the Buffalo offense, but on the flip side, Pettine knows the Bills offensive schemes from being with the Buffalo Bills last year.  Which side will get more of an advantage from this?

3.  Josh Gordon v.s. Sammy Watkins:  Two of the best young receivers in the league square off in a must win game for both squads.  The weather is expected to be rainy tomorrow so on a hard day to pass the ball, which receiver will come up and make some big plays? 

My Prediction:   These are two evenly matched teams with a ton still left to play for on both sides.  I like Buffalo's defense just a little more and I feel like the Bills are due for a true home win.  

Buffalo 23   Cleveland 20

Rock the..... Ford Field?

Buffalo, NY

Detroit, MI

It has been a very difficult couple of weeks for the Bills and the city of Buffalo.  I mean 15 days ago, Buffalo found themselves at home up by 10 early in the 4th quarter against a very good Chiefs team, ready to get to 6-3.  One fourth quarter collapse, and a horrendous road loss in Miami has the Bills sitting at 5-5 for this must win contest tonight against the New York Jets.  This marks the Bills first game on Monday Night since the opener of the 2009 season, but it wasn't scheduled that way.  This game, which was originally scheduled for the 23rd, got bumped back one day and had to shift locations to Ford Field in Detroit home of the Detroit Lions.  This was due to the record setting amount of lake-effect snow that accumulated in the south towns of Western New York.  Places like Orchard Park, Lancaster, and Hamburg received over 60" of snow.  There was a travel ban in place in most areas as the roads and main highways were shut down.  The worst snow storm in Buffalo since the Blizzard of '77 has caused hard times for the city so this is more than just a football game.  

With the Bills barely hanging around in the playoff race, this is a must win along with most of the remaining games.  The team was unable to practice for most of this week due to the weather back home.  Now they find themselves in Detroit awaiting a Jets team that has one thing on its mind: revenge.  Four weeks ago Buffalo rolled into the Meadowlands and stomped on the Jets 43-23 causing 6 turnovers.  QB Geno Smith was replaced for backup Michael Vick, who also plans on starting tonight's game.  New York is coming off of a huge upset victory over Pittsburgh and had a bye week to prepare for tonight's game.  That along with the Bills being off of the practice field for much of the week gives the Jets a much better chance this time around.  Orton is coming off his worst performance as a Buffalo Bill and needs to look much better tonight.  Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon figure to be a part of the offense once again at running back with a limited Fred Jackson.  The big thing once again coming in is the Bills red zone offense.  The worst in the league, Buffalo failed to score a touchdown last week in Miami.  Here are a few other keys to this divisional matchup in Detroit.  

Three Keys to the Game:

1. Ballhawks Have To Make Plays: Six turnovers.  Rarely does an opponent give the ball up that much so the Bills secondary, which consists of Graham, Gilmore, Williams, and Searcy needs to make plays and turn the Jets over.  Especially now that Leodis Mckelvin is out for the season.  

2. Sammy, Sammy, Sammy: The Buffalo Bills are 5-1 when Sammy Watkins gets 30 or more receiving yards in a game (the one loss being last week to Miami).  On the flip side, they are 0-4 when he is held under 30 yards.  Needless to say, we need to get him the ball early and often if we want to see success offensively.  

3. Keep Vick In The Pocket:  Even in his older days, Michael Vick is still a very mobile quarterback.  In the first matchup when he replaced Geno Smith, the Jets offense seemed to move the ball much better after the switch was made.  Most of that was due to Vick's running ability on top of his arm strength.  The Bills need to apply a lot of pressure on him, while being smart and disciplined at the same time.  

My Prediction: After two really tough losses and with everything that has happened to the city of Buffalo, expect Buffalo to come out hot.  I see the Jets keeping this game close, but for the Bills to pull out a huge division win and move back above .500.

Buffalo Bills 24  New York Jets 19

Orton & Banged Up Offense face Red Hot Chiefs

As the Buffalo Bills start the second half of their season this weekend, it is impossible to ignore how tough the remaining schedule is.  Six out of those eight opponents are at least 5-3, the only exceptions being the Jets and Raiders.  The Kansas City Chiefs come into Orchard Park this weekend rolling.  Winners of three straight and four of their last five, the Chiefs have found their winning formula.  Kansas City is one of the most fundamentally sound teams in the league.  They lead the NFL in rushing with a now healthy Jamaal Charles and Kniles Davis.  Quarterback Alex Smith has been very steady in his two years in Kansas City only throwing 11 interceptions in 24 games.  The Chiefs are led by Dwayne Bowe at wide out and Travis Kelce at tight end.  Overall, Kansas City has the 26th ranked offense in the league, but their biggest strength is the defense, led by Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Justin Houston, and Eric Berry.  With the Bills poor offensive line, the Chiefs should be able to apply a ton of pressure on Kyle Orton.  

Hopefully the bye week gave the Bills some time to work in more creative schemes into the offense.  Even though the Bills won by 20 points against New York, the vanilla offense was still on display.  Luckily, the Bills were bailed out by six Jets turnovers.  The play calling isn't the only thing that is questionable at One Bills Drive.  Sammy Watkins left practice on Wednesday with a groin injury while Fred Jackson is trying to make a comeback after his knee injury in week 7.  Both players are listed as questionable for Sunday.  Rushing the ball will be crucial for Buffalo this week going against this very strong run defense.  Specifically on first down, where the Bills are near the bottom of the NFL.  Avoiding 3rd & long will help the Bills move the ball more effectively and keep the pressure off of Orton.  Another thing to keep an eye on for this game is Kyle Orton going against his former team.  In a very close matchup between two 5-3 teams, it could very well come down to which QB makes the fewest mistakes.  

Three Keys to the Game:

1. Give Orton Some Time: To me, this game comes down to Buffalo's O-line v.s Kansas City's D-line.  If they can give Orton time to sit in the pocket, he should find holes in that secondary.  If not, then it could be a long day.  Dialing up some play-action passes could open things up as well.  

2. Know Your Opponent: The Buffalo Bills should take a long, hard look at last year's game against the Chiefs.  The Bills doubled them in yards, yet lost the game because of crucial turnovers.  Understand that Kansas City won't kill themselves with careless penalties and turnovers.  No turnovers, control the clock, and capitalize when you get in the red zone.  

3. Start Strong: Coming back against the Chiefs is always a tall task so getting an early lead in the 1st quarter is crucial.  It has been a problem for the Bills, especially at home so get the crowd going early with some big plays.  

My Prediction: Huge game for the AFC Wild Card picture with two 5-3 teams.  The Bills being at home and coming off a bye looks good, but they always seem to lose every game I go to.  That being said, I like the Chiefs in this one.  

Kansas City 24   Buffalo 21  OT

Brown and Dixon Get Chance to Shine

The only good part of last week for the Bills was that they came away with the win.  Coming away with a one point win at home against Minnesota while losing your two starting running backs isn't exactly what the doctor ordered.  That's not to take anything away from Orton, Watkins, Chandler, and Hogan who all came up huge on that final game winning drive, but the Bills simply need to play better this week if they expect to win on the road.  With Spiller out for the season and Fred Jackson out at least two weeks, Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown step into the starting roles at running back.  It is still uncertain as to how Nathaniel Hackett will distribute the carries but both will probably be a big part of the game plan for this sunday.  Both Dixon and Brown were added in the offseason (Dixon from San Francisco and Brown from Philadelphia).  Bryce Brown is more of a speed guy who likes to get to the edge while Dixon prefers to go straight through defenders and try to get tough yards.  They complement each other very well and against a stout New York defense, the Bills will need big games out of both guys.  

The big story of the NFL from last week was star wide receiver Percy Harvin getting traded from the Seahawks to the Jets.  Today is Harvin's debut for the green and white and he should be someone Buffalo keeps an eye on.  New York is his third different team in as many seasons for the very talented, but troubled wide receiver.  He figures to bring a lot of help to a young quarterback in Geno Smith with one of the worst receiving cores in the league. Eric Decker, the Jets offseason acquisition from Denver, has put together a solid season and figures to be the number two receiver with the addition of Harvin.  The identity of the Jets is running the football behind Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson.  New York averages 135 yards on the ground per game and should be the toughest matchup for the Bills run defense up to this point in the season.  

Three keys to the game:

1. Turnover Battle: The Bills were extremely fortunate to come away with a win last week after turning the ball over four times.  Kyle Orton has brought more life to the passing game, but his turnover problems need to change if Buffalo wants to get a division win today.  

2.  Force the Jets to beat you with Geno: Since the Jets have two very capable running backs who can go off, it is important for the Bills to take that away.  The Vikings ran for over 150 last week so if Buffalo can keep New York under 100 for the game that gives them a good chance.  Geno Smith has been known to make big mistakes so the more he throws the ball, the better for the Bills defense.  

3.  Red Zone: The Buffalo Bills are one of the worst red zone offenses in the league, although things have improved under Kyle Orton.  Field goals will not be enough in this game as the Bills will have to punch in a few touchdowns against a very good Jets defense.  

My Prediction: It's a lot to ask out of Boobie Dixon and Bryce Brown to just jump in and fix an already struggling running game. Buffalo will struggle to move the ball consistently, while I question the Bills ability to stop the Jets on the ground.  The Bills have more flaws than we all thought and the Jets will expose those today.  Also, playing in the meadowlands has never been fun for the Bills.  

New York Jets 23   Buffalo Bills 16

Finish Your Cupcakes

The Bills first six opponents this year have a combined record of 22-14 showing just how difficult the schedule has been.  Coming out of that stretch at 3-3 has given Buffalo a chance to rattle off some wins in this middle part of the season.  These next six games are hands down the easiest games on the Bills schedule as the combined record of these next six opponents is 11-24.  The first game of this stretch is today as the 3-3 Buffalo Bills host the 2-4 Minnesota Vikings.  Minnesota was a rebuilding team before losing Adrian Peterson for the season and now they are relying on rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater to lead this team.  This marks his third start of his NFL career and is coming off of a double digit loss to a team the Bills beat in Detroit.  In fact, every single game for Minnesota this year has been decided by double digits.  The Vikings might be young and still a few years away from doing damage in a tough NFC, but they do have some good playmakers the Bills must be aware of.  At wide receiver, they have the speedster in Cordarelle Patterson who does his damage in the passing game and on returns.  Patterson has the ability to change a game with his skill on kick off and punt returns.  Greg Jennings brings veteran leadership to a young Vikings offense and he is Minnesota's leading receiver.  

Coming off of a tough home loss to our division rival, this is close to a must win game for the Bills playoff hopes.  This is arguably the easiest game on the Bills schedule so taking care of business is essential to keeping pace with New England.  This marks as Kyle Orton's third start as a Bill, and yes, his first without the stache! The offense looked sluggish early last week but eventually was able to put up points.  In the end, the defense was what let the Bills down last week and this poses as a favorable match up for the stout defensive line.  They only picked up 2 sacks last week and with a rookie QB and young offensive line, expect Schwartz to dial up some creative blitz schemes to try and confuse Bridgewater.  Another thing that must change is the run game.  65 yards isn't going to cut it, especially when you play Tom Brady.  A team that's identity is running the football has simply struggled to do so all season.  If the Bills want any shot at a post season berth, they must change that today...... Yes I'm talking to you CJ Spiller wake up.  Without further or due, here are some keys to today's matchup:

1. Start Strong: Buffalo has gotten off to slow starts in their last two games against New England and Detroit.  Get off to a good start, get the crowd going and don't let Minnesota think they have a chance.  The longer the Vikings can hang around, the more pressure it puts on the Bills.  

2. Be aware of Patterson: Cordarrelle Patterson has the ability to hurt teams in both the return and passing games.  Special teams hasn't been much of a factor yet this season, but the Bills better bring their A game today because one mistake and Patterson will take it in for six.  

3. Can we get a CJ Spiller sighting? Six carries for 19 yards isn't going to cut it.  Spiller has ZERO touchdowns through six games this season and I see this as a possible game for him to turn it around.  Hopefully Hackett can get him some touches early on and get him involved in the offense because the Bills need his explosiveness.  


My Prediction: I expect Minnesota to keep it close for a little while but the combination of Buffalo's stout defense wanting to make up for last week, and the potential of our running game, the Bills are too much in this one. 

Buffalo 30    Minnesota 13

Changing of the Guard?

Last week was Jim Schwartz week as the Bills went into Detroit and beat the defensive coordinator's former team.  Schwartz got carried off the field by some of the players and it was a great way to cap off the Ralph Wilson era.  Now as we start a new era in Buffalo,  the Bills look to beat a very familiar foe in the New England Patriots.  It's a game Bills fans and players have been waiting for all off-season, none more than former Patriot Brandon Spikes.  Spikes, now with the Bills, sent out some very bold tweets about playing against his former team back in August: "@BrandonSpikes51- It's icing on my cake to hand the #Patriots two big L's this year #justwatch."  Spikes also referred to the New England fans as "massholes" in a later tweet.  Spikes will have a great chance to get revenge on his former team today at Ralph Wilson Stadium as first place in on the line in the AFC East.  

The New England Patriots come in at 3-2 after knocking off the previously undefeated Bengals at home.  In the two meetings last year, New England defeated Buffalo and the last time Buffalo won came back in 2011.  That win was the only time the Bills beat the Pats in the last decade.....  However, if there was ever a time for the Bills to beat the team that has been their kryptonite, it is now.  Brady and the offense have certainly had their struggles against teams like Oakland, Kansas City, and Miami; All of whom aren't necessarily the creams of the crop in the AFC.  Buffalo also leads the league in sacks so going against a young, and inexperienced offensive line could lead to Brady seeing the turf a lot this afternoon.  The Patriots do have some strong receivers in Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, both of whom have given the Bills fits in the past.  Gronkowski's size in particular, could potentially pose as a big threat to the Bills secondary.  New England brings in an opportunistic defense that lives off turnovers.  Considering the Bills have thrown a pick six in consecutive games, that looks pretty scary.  The Bills need the Kyle Orton we saw in the second half last week.  He was poised, under control and led Buffalo back to win from down 14 on the road.  If they can play turnover free, and keep a steady balance of run-pass, I expect the Bills to have a great chance in today's ball game.  In this divisional matchup, there are many keys to dissect but here are the biggest things to look out for.  

1. Be Creative: Enough of our plain, vanilla offense.  Either take a shot deep early in the game, or maybe run a sweep with Watkins just to find easy ways to get our playmakers out in space.  Being predictable against New England usually leads to problems.

2.  Gronkowski Lights up Buffalo: Gronkowski has had some huge games in the past against his hometown team.  Really look for New England to target him a lot, especially in the red zone.  

3. Woods Ending His Slump: New England loves to take away a team's #1 receiver and it helps that they have Darrelle Revis to cover Sammy Watkins today.  With that being said, expect Robert Woods to get a lot of targets and hopefully he will get out of his slump.  

My Prediction: This is going to be a highly competitive, emotional game.  Pegula being at the game today will energize the crowd and put a lot of pressure on New England to get out to an early lead.  I think the combination of being at home, and having the stronger defense will help Buffalo pull out a HUGE home win! 

Buffalo 24    New England 20

Orton Hears a W?

Kyle Orton has only been on the Buffalo Bills for just over a month, and now he is being asked to save a fading season.  After a great 2-0 start, Buffalo has fallen back to the pack in the AFC East with two straight defeats to San Diego and Houston.  EJ Manuel has the second lowest QBR in the NFL and a mediocre 58 completion pct, leading to the switch at QB.  Orton is a ten year veteran who is now with his fifth different team.  Orton is the epitome of an average quarterback, but he brings a sense of stability to a team that really needs it.  It was becoming obvious that EJ was the one thing holding this team back from where they could go.  With Orton, expect the offense to get away from the read option that was used with Manuel.  Orton doesn't pose a threat with his legs, but his accuracy and deep ball throws are an improvement over Manuel.  

That was really the main reason for the switch as Manuel failed to get the ball to his great play makers down the field.  Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins are way to good to go a game combining for less than 50 yards.  Now the recent struggles can't be put all on EJ, I think the coaching staff needs to get better.  Last week: 44 passes and 23 runs.  Week 3: 40 passes, 22 runs.  Now that is a recipe for disaster with a young QB.  I know in the San Diego game they fell down early and they were kind of forced into passing it every down, but last week in a game that they led for much of, they avoided running even though it was working.  Establishing the run early is the biggest key today.  

The Detroit Lions are one of the most complete teams in the entire NFL.  They have always had a potent offense, but now they have the defense to back it up.  They stop the run very well, and get a lot of pressure on the QB making this look like a tough game for a young offensive line and new quarterback.  On offense, they have one of the best duo's in the league in Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson.  The run game isn't particularly great, but Reggie Bush is capable of exploding at any time.  The dangerous thing with this Lions team is that they can win in a multitude of ways.  They are built to win in a shootout, or in a grind it out low scoring game.  Being at home certainly helps too as Detroit is off to a 2-0 start at Ford Field this season.  This looks to be one of the toughest games on the Bills schedule and a lot will need to happen to pull out the win.  Here are the biggest keys to achieving that this week:

1. Don't fall behind: With a new QB, falling behind early in that raucous stadium is not good.  Get an early score, run the ball, and quiet that crowd.

2. Don't let 81 beat you: Calvin Johnson is the best wide receiver in the league and is capable of 200+ yards any given sunday.  Containing him and keeping them away from those big plays could take Stafford out of his rhythm.  

3. Jim Schwartz: Bills defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz was the Lions head coach from '09 to '13.  This is a revenge game for him and with it he brings a huge advantage for Buffalo.  Having an inside source who knows the personnel can be huge in a game with two great defenses.  

I expect the Bills to put up a huge fight against a very good team, but ultimately falling short.  Being at home, and having the better QB will make the difference.  

Detroit 24  Buffalo 17

Bills look to remain unbeaten against red hot Chargers

Before I get into the Bills preview for this week, I want to take a look at another game in the NFL.  Both of my younger brother's favorite teams are playing each other in the Cincinnati Bengals v.s. the Tennessee Titans.  The Bengals come in red hot with a blow out win against Atlanta while Tennessee fell short against Dallas at home.  Cincinnati is a team that is a heavy favorite to win the AFC North while the Titans are a team that will be battling the Bills for a wild card spot in all likelihood.  The game is being played in Cincinnati where the Bengals are very tough to beat (10 straight home wins).  Standout WR AJ Green is questionable going into this game so the Bengals will have to turn to Mohammad Sanu and Giovani Bernard to get the offense moving.  As for the Titans, they have a very balanced attack with young QB Jake Locker and affective running backs in Shonn Greene, Bishop Sankey, and Dexter  McCluster.  I expect a very low scoring game with both offenses having a hard time moving the ball at all.  Even without Green at 100%, I expect the Bengals to be too much for a young and improving team in Tennessee.

My Prediction: Cincinnati wins 23-13


As for the Bills, they host the (1-1) San Diego Chargers today at Ralph Wilson Stadium at 1pm.  Only seven teams sit today 2-0 and the Bills are one of those teams.  The last time Buffalo got out to a 3-0 start was back in 2011.  San Diego is coming off a home win against last year's super bowl champions the Seattle Seahawks.  The Chargers offense is going to be without starting running back Ryan Matthews so expect Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown to get the bulk of the carries.  At receiver, they are led by Keenan Allen, Eddie Royal and Antonio Gates.  Gates had 3 touchdowns last week so he is the main guy Buffalo needs to keep an eye on.  Philip Rivers has gotten off to a great start this season, but he and the Chargers as a whole have struggled playing in Buffalo.  West coast teams that have to travel east usually have a difficult time so it will be interesting to see if the crowd or the early start time has an affect on San Diego.  The biggest key for Buffalo offensively is red zone efficiency.  They only converted for one touchdown out of six chances last week so that must improve if they want to win.  EJ doesn't need to have a career game, he just needs to hang onto the ball and put the offense in a good position.  The wind is expected to be a huge factor today so field position will be a main point of emphasis for both teams.  I expect another low scoring game and in the end I see the crowd being a huge difference.

My Prediction: Buffalo wins 21-20

This One is For Ralph

Ralph Wilson Jr. passed away in March of this year, making this the first home game in Buffalo Bills history without him as the owner.  As of this Tuesday, that title belongs to a new man in Sabres owner Terry Pegula.  With Pegula as the new Bills owner, it guarantees that they will stay in Buffalo!  If you add the fact that Jim Kelly is now cancer free, the Bills are coming off an incredible performance in Chicago, and this is against the rival Dolphins, that makes this the biggest home game since the AFC Championship games in the early 90's.  Good luck getting tickets if you haven't already, cheapest ones come in at $180/ticket!  Really wish I had one myself....

Last season the Bills took both games against Miami by scores of 23-21 and 19-0.  The key to winning those games was getting pressure on QB Ryan Tannehill.  Mario Williams and company got to him with ease and that will have to continue if they want to win.    Much like Chicago, Miami runs the football very effectively.  Led by NFL's leading rusher in week 1 Knowshon Moreno and steady backup Lamar Miller, the Dolphins ran for 191 yards in an upset victory over New England.  With 1st place in the AFC East on the line, expect both teams to run the ball a lot.  Both teams have the ability to move it through the air as well.  Tannehill is considered by many to be one of the best young quarterbacks in the league and it's hard to argue with that.  He has a very good completion % and does a good job of avoiding the big mistakes.  EJ had a very solid game last week.  He didn't have many big plays down the field, but he was confident, held onto the ball, and put the team in position to come away with the win.  

Three Keys to the Game: 

Both defense's had very good games last week, so the first key to this game is which defense will perform better? Stopping the run was instrumental to getting out to a 1-0 start so I see this game coming down to who will run the ball better.  Next is the crowd.  This will be the loudest crowd Buffalo has seen in a long time so it certainly puts the Dolphins at a disadvantage.  How the Dolphins handle this kind of pressure will ultimately determine how this game will go.  Lastly, field position might be a huge factor.  I expect a low scoring game so whoever can gain the edge in field position or get a huge play in special teams will look good.  

Prediction: Buffalo 27 Miami 17

Defense, along with timely runs help propel Bills to win in Overtime

Eric Wood said it best after the game when he tweeted the following, "@EWood70: Great team win! Sorry about all your survivor pools out there."  The Bills certainly did surprise a lot of people by pulling off one of the biggest upsets of the day by winning in Chicago 23-20 in OT.  The defense picked off Jay Cutler twice and forced a fumble from Brandon Marshall adding up to three critical turnovers for Chicago.  The 427 total yards by the Bears offense shows they were able to move the ball most of the day, but that bend but don't break defense really helped Buffalo.  Cutler was 34/49 for 349 yards 2 TD's and 2 Int's, while Forte led the Bears with 82 yards on the ground.

On the flip side, The Bills offense got big plays when they needed them.  EJ wasn't great, but he was in control throughout 16/22 for 173 yards 1 TD and 1 Int.  The three headed monster that is the Bills running attack killed the Bears for 193 yards on the ground, capped off by Fred Jackson's 38 yard run to set up the game winning Dan Carpenter field goal in overtime.  Manuel delivered some beautiful second half throws, two of which jump out right away.  The first one was that incredible catch by Robert Woods in which it looked like he was just floating forever in mid air.  The second one was the 20 yard pass in OT to Mike Williams that put the Bills in Chicago territory.  On the stat sheets, they will go down as just two completions, but I think there is more to that.  On the post game show last night, a caller said something very interesting that stuck with me.  He referred to those two throws as the first time he has ever seen EJ "throw his receivers open."  How many times have fans, myself included, criticized Manuel for his lack of accuracy? I'll tell you..... too much!  But I saw yesterday as a big step going forward for his confidence.  Williams wasn't open when he threw it, but he put it in a spot where only his guy could go get it.  With the receivers Buffalo has, just putting it up there and telling them to go get it is a pretty good option.  

Biggest play of the game: Middle of the 4th quarter, tied game.  The Bills just surrendered their 10 point lead and all the momentum was with Chicago.  Bears ball 3rd & 1 at the Buffalo 34 Cutler rolls right pumps, pumps, throws across the field picked off by KYLE WILLIAMS?! That's right, the 300 + lb. defensive tackle grabbed his first interception of his career when he stepped in front of tight end Martellus Bennett.  It stopped all of the momentum and the Bills went on to take the lead once again and eventually win.  

Game MVP: This one is so easy for me.  When the news came down that Stephon Gilmore was unable to play, it looked as though the Bills were in deep trouble.  Against this offense without your #1 corner on the road is tough.  Luckily for Buffalo, they had Corey Graham.  The Bills captain was the best player in this game.  His interception in the first half set up the CJ Spiller touchdown, then more importantly his deflected passes while guarding Brandon Marshall saved the game.  He blanketed the Bears number 1 receiver and made things difficult for him all night.  It kept the Bears out of the end zone and eventually led to a HUGE road win. 

Game Injuries: Two starting defensive players left the game LB Keith Rivers (groin), and S Aaron Williams (concussion like symptoms).  Their status for next week is unknown at this time.

Next Week: The Bills return to the friendly confines of Ralph Wilson Stadium for the home opener against the division rival Miami Dolphins. 1 pm kickoff CBS

Week 1 Preview: Buffalo Bills v.s. Chicago Bears

Football is finally back! Week one for the Buffalo Bills features a road contest against a very formidable opponent in the Chicago Bears.  The Bears missed out on the playoffs by one game last season and bring in one of the most potent offenses in the NFL.  Star Quarterback Jay Cutler rounded out by Matt Forte at RB, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey at WR, and Martellus Bennett at TE.  Forte was 2nd in rushing last season while Marshall and Jeffrey are two of the top Wide Receivers in the NFL.  A very "tall" task for a young Buffalo Defense that looked really good in the pre season.  Jeffrey, Marshall, and Bennett are all 6'4 or taller making them a matchup nightmare for just about anyone.  On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears struggle.  30th in overall defense, and last overall against the run should make it easy for the Bills backs to find holes and have huge games.  The Bears did add star DE Jared Allen who will take place of Julius Peppers who is now with Green Bay.  Allen has been a sacking machine throughout his career so it is important for Buffalo's young O-line to contain him as much as possible.  

Now let's get to Buffalo.  The Bills have had a turbulent off-season to say the least.  Between the on going sale of the team, to Jim Kelly battling through cancer, and finally to the horrid performances they displayed this preseason.  There was a lot of optimism going into training camp and for good reason.  For the first time in 15 years, our front office has made big moves to put this team in a position to do big things (something you didn't really see in Ralph's later years).  All of that optimism has gone south as of late because of how inept the offense looked throughout the entire preseason.  The defense looked very good at times but the offense is clearly what is holding back this team.  EJ simply must play better if Buffalo even has a shot at a postseason birth.  

Buffalo has never won at Soldier field and in their last meeting there, Chicago came away with a 40-7 win.  In order for Buffalo to avoid a similar result today they are going to have to run, run, run, run, run all over the Bears.  This has the potential to be a shootout with how easy it is for Chicago to put up points so look for Buffalo to ground and pound which will hopefully set up the play action pass.  Another huge key is pressure.  Buffalo must get to Cutler early and often if they want to stop them.  With one of the best D-lines in the league, the Bills can certainly do that.  The secondary is going to be feeling pressure all day with that outstanding receiving core, so that front 7 is the key to this game.  Lastly, the turnover margin.  It always plays a huge factor but on the road it is even bigger.  You lose it on the road and you almost certainly won't come away with a win.  That being said, EJ just needs to manage the game and that will give the Bills a good chance in this one.  Is this Buffalo's year? Is the playoff drought finally going to end? We will find out soon enough, enjoy the first week of games everyone!  

Why Bills fan's should be excited, but cautious

It's a brand new season in Western New York, and things feel different than last year.  This is the first year that the Bills will go into a season without the great Ralph Wilson Jr. and the team is currently up for sale.  There are speculations of the team possibly moving to Toronto or even Los Angeles in the future so the front office is feeling a lot of pressure to win, and win now.  This is the second season at the helm for Doug Marrone and he brings back most of the same coaching staff.  The Bills did get a new defensive coordinator in Jim Schwartz, former head coach of the Detroit Lions.  This offseason has been centered around two big problems involving the Buffalo Bills Defense: 1. the season ending injury to LB Kiko Alonso and 2. the issues involving DL Marcell Dareus.  The Kiko injury is certainly devastating to a young defense like this one.  They will have to rely on young players such as Preston 
Brown and Nigel Bradham to step into that role.  As for Dareus, he is facing a likely suspension from the league for his arrest of drug charges in early May.  Along with that, he also showed up to the first day of training camp out of shape so he is unable to practice.  This is not very good for a defense that is the strength of this team and led the NFL in sacks last season.  

The one area that the Bills needed help in defensively is the secondary.  Safety Jairus Byrd left and signed a new contract with the New Orleans Saints.  Competition for his job will be wide open with a lot of young talent led by Da'Norris Searcy.  Duke Williams, Jonathan Meeks, and Ron Brooks also have a good chance to earn a starting spot.  At cornerback, the Bills finally look like they have some depth as they picked up Corey Graham from the Ravens.  He will compete with Leodis McKelvin and Stephon Gilmore for the starting job.  Adding Brandon Spikes at middle linebacker will be huge because of his experience in New England.   I expect this defense to be better than last year even if there are some struggles early on adjusting to a new coordinator.  

Now, lets get to what everyone wants to talk about: The new and improved Bills offense.  Led by second year QB EJ Manuel, the Bills look to build off a promising first season together.  Stevie Johnson got sent to San Francisco because of the new guys in town, specifically 4th overall pick Sammy Watkins.  He has drawn comparisons by many to Julio Jones and its clear to see where that comes from.  He has incredible speed with the size to match, which is why he holds so many receiving records at Clemson.  Mike Williams is the other new guy we got in a trade with Tampa Bay.  Williams is a big physical receiver who provides a red zone threat on the perimeter.  It's hard not to get excited with all of the talent at the skilled positions.  Along with Williams and Watkins, the other Bills receiver threats include Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, TJ Graham, and TE Scott Chandler.  Marcus Easley and Kevin Elliott will also be competing to make the 53 man roster.  That's just at receiver, at running back we still have arguably the deepest backfield in the league with a great 1-2 punch in CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson.  The Bills also picked up red zone specialist Anthony Dixon and speedster Bryce Brown just to add even more depth to the 2nd ranked running game in the NFL.  A serious question to ask is how will Nathaniel Hackett manage to distribute the carries fairly to all four guys?  I guess we will have to wait to find out.

Fans should certainly be excited about what the Bills might be able to do this year.  We certainly are on the up swing and seem to be deeper and more talented than a year ago.  My only advice to you die hard Bills fans is to proceed with caution.  It has been 15 long, painful years since Buffalo has made the postseason, even longer since a playoff win.  It's been so long of a drought that my youngest brother wasn't even born when they last made the playoffs..... and he just entered high school.  Making the playoffs with a second year coach and QB might be way out of reach, or we could be a dark horse to make the postseason.  The first half of the schedule is very manageable, giving the bills a good chance to start off with a winning record.  The only rough patch comes in the last four games where three of those are against some of the NFL's best in Denver, New England, and Green Bay.  Another big factor will be injuries and how we deal with them.  

Our depth will come into play unlike the last couple of seasons and playing 8 actual homes games won't hurt the Bills either.  

My prediction: Buffalo Bills 8-8 

Western Conference First Round Preview

Seven teams finished with at least 50 wins this season and the only team that didn't, the Dallas Mavericks 49-33, would have been good enough for third in the East.  It is a conference that has been very competitive and tough to tell who its best team really is.  Some say its the Clippers, others OKC, and usually people just sleep on the team that always ends up being there, the San Antonio Spurs.  The one thing I do know about these first round match up's is that no one knows for sure who is going to come out of this conference.  So without further or do, here is your preview of the West first round match ups.

#8 Dallas Mavericks v.s. #1 San Antonio Spurs

Losing in heart breaking fashion in the NBA Finals was hard for the San Antonio Spurs to deal with, but now they are back.  The team that everyone always overlooks is back where they always seem to be, on top of the Western Conference.  They have the same core group from last year and they actually added a key bench player from Chicago in Marco Belinelli.  As for the Mavericks, they had to claw their way into the playoffs and fight off the Phoenix Suns for the last spot.  Led by Dirk Nowitzki, and Monta Ellis the Mavericks are ready to present a serious challenge to San Antonio.  The great thing about both of these teams is they play great team basketball and it will be interesting to see how they match up.  Covering Tony Parker will be a challenge for Jose Calderon and Devin Harris of Dallas.  The Spurs come into the postseason playing their best basketball of the season and they don't do it with one guy, its a very balanced scoring attack.  Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and Boris Diaw have fit into their roles quite nicely and they seem to be poised for a deep playoff run.  I don't expect Dallas to be a serious test to the Spurs as their depth, shooting, and skill will prove to be too much for a thin Mavericks line up.  

My Prediction: Spurs win series 4-1 


#5 Portland Trail Blazers v.s. #4 Houston Rockets 

There is a lot of pressure on the Houston Rockets to go far in this year's playoffs.  If you look at it, Dwight Howard is always criticized for not being able to get it done in the post season and the same can be said for James Harden.  Both of these teams went through many ups and downs for the year and they find themselves facing each other in a series that appears to be even.  Star power is in favor of the Rockets, but Portland might have the better starting 5.  Its one of the best in the league and they are all very efficient led by LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard along with Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews, and Robin Lopez.  Bench scoring is an advantage for Houston as they have Jeremy Lin, Omer Asik, and Omri Casspi who are all very productive.  My favorite match up to watch out for comes at small forward with Chandler Parsons and Nicolas Batum.  Both players are 3-point shooters who can do other things offensively as well which makes them tough covers.  Expect a very high scoring series because both teams can put up a lot of points.  In the end, having home court and being a little bit deeper really helps Houston in this one.  It also helps to have probably the two best players in this series on your team in Howard and Harden.

My Prediction: Rockets win series 4-2

#6 Golden State Warriors v.s. #3 Los Angeles Clippers

No words can describe how fun this series is going to be.  Lob City v.s. the Splash Brothers. CP3 v.s. Steph Curry is definitely the matchup to watch in this one because they will have the ball in their hands most of the time.  This has the potential to be the highest scoring series because both teams average over 104 points/per game.  Blake Griffin has stepped his game up as of late and it will take a group effort from Golden State to stop him.  With center Andrew Bogut out for this series, David Lee and Draymond Green will need to step in and be affective.  It's going to be tough for the Warriors to keep pace as Los Angeles is probably the deepest team in the league. Their new additions that come off the bench include Hedo Turkoglu, Danny Granger, Glen Davis, and Darren Collison. That's not even including Jamal Crawford who is one of the best Sixth men in the league.  The Warriors will rely heavily on their starting line-up, especially Curry, Thompson, and Iguodala.  Last year, the Clippers failed in the first round and got a lot of criticism for it.  I don't see the same thing happening this year, expect Golden State to make it an interesting series but for the Clippers to end up on top.  

My Prediction: Clippers win series 4-2

#7 Memphis Grizzlies v.s. #2 Oklahoma City Thunder

Let it be known that Memphis is not the team the Thunder were hoping to play in the first round.  Last year in the West semi-finals, Memphis took care of an OKC team minus Russell Westbrook in just five games.  The physicality of the Grizzlies clearly affected the Thunder and I expect much of the same this time.  Kevin Durant is playing at a very high level right now and it looks like he is going to win the MVP trophy.  Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol will match up against Serge Ibaka down low while Mike Conley will go against Russell Westbrook.  It's going to be a series of pace since OKC wants to get up and down scoring a ton of points while Memphis would rather have the game be played in the 80s.  I expect the home team to win a majority of these games and for Memphis to make things really difficult for the Thunder.  However, I do expect the Thunder to come through and win this series. 

My Prediction: Thunder win series 4-3

Eastern Conference First Round Preview

Early in the season, the talk about the east was that it was a two team conference and it would be a cake walk for the Pacers and Heat up until the East Finals.  Well, now that the playoffs are here and we have a full season completed, it appears that the other playoff teams in the East will provide a huge challenge for Miami and Indiana.  So without further or do, here is your Eastern Conference preview for all four first round series.  

#8 Atlanta Hawks v.s. #1 Indiana Pacers

Both of these teams enter the postseason struggling to find their offense so don't expect too many of these games to be played in the 100's.  The Hawks come into the postseason with a costly injury.  Their starting center Al Horford will miss this entire playoff run with torn pectorals.  Staring in his place is Pero Antic who is still in his rookie season.  In order for the Hawks to be a serious challenge to Indiana, they will need huge production offensively from their guards Jeff Teague, Lou Williams, and Kyle Korver along with Paul Millsap down low.  With Indiana having a huge advantage inside, the Hawks will need to shoot the lights out from deep.  

The Pacers, who hold the East's top spot, have been playing under .500 for the last couple of weeks.  This is a good matchup for the Pacers because of their size advantage and having a deeper team.  Hibbert and West should have a field day inside but the real key is for Hill and Stevenson to match the production of the Hawks guards.  I don't believe that the Hawks have anybody who can stop Paul George either and he is going to be the best player on the floor both offensively and defensively.  In the end, the Pacers being at home and playing their style of defense will be way too much for a beaten up Atlanta Hawks team.  

My Prediction: Pacers win series 4-1

#5 Washington Wizards v.s. #4 Chicago Bulls

Probably the most interesting first round matchup in the East features a young and talented Wizards squad and a defensive juggernaut in the Bulls.  The loss of Derrick Rose for this matchup is huge because of the guard on the other side and his rise in stardom, John Wall.  Wall along side Bradley Beal gives Washington a steady backcourt that can create tons of problems for a Bulls squad who's biggest weakness is scoring at the guard position.  The Bulls get a bulk of their scoring down low with Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer, and Taj Gibson.  Their energy defensively, positive rebounding margin, and ability to score will create problems for the Wizards and give the Bulls an edge in that area.  However, the Wizards do have some capable big men that can compete with the Bulls in Marcin Gortat and Nene.  In a matchup of offense v.s. defense, experience v.s. inexperience, and home court everything points to the Bulls winning this series.  Especially when you have an MVP candidate in Joakim Noah who is playing the best basketball of his career.  Call me crazy but I actually believe Washington will take this series.  Yes, their inexperience scares me, but their athleticism along with their three point shooting should be enough to beat a tough and gritty Bulls team.  

My Prediction: Wizards win series 4-3

#6 Brooklyn Nets v.s. #3 Toronto Raptors

If you told me at the start of the season that the Toronto Raptors would be the Atlantic Division champs, I would have laughed right at you and said very funny.  Looks like I'm the one looking stupid as the Raptors finished the regular season 48-34 good enough for third in the conference.  Their first round matchup is against their division rival Brooklyn Nets.  The Nets have way more playoff experience with Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Joe Johnson, and Deron Williams leading the way.  Even though the Raptors have home-court, this is a huge factor in favor of Brooklyn.  The one main advantage Toronto has in this series is athleticism.  Fast break points and rebounding are two areas in which the Raptors should control over the course of the series.  While the Raptors use a philosophy of "big guys by committee," the Nets relied heavily on Brook Lopez for offensive production until he had a season ending injury which keeps him out of the postseason.  The Nets are going to need vintage KG along with Andray Blatche and Mason Plumlee to keep pace with Toronto inside.  I see this series being long with very close finishes and many twists and turns.  In the end, Toronto's perimeter defense is going to stifle Brooklyn and a home game 7 with a raucous crowd will prove to be the difference.

My Prediction: Raptors win series 4-3

#7 Charlotte Bobcats v.s. #2 Miami Heat

Sure, Miami beat Charlotte all four times this year so we should just expect them to roll over the Bobcats in the playoffs too right? Not exactly.... The Miami Heat come into the playoffs, just like the Pacers, struggling.  They finished their last 25 games under .500 and only two teams have ever won the title while doing that.  Charlotte on the other hand comes into the playoffs red hot, finishing the regular season 18-8. The Miami Heat are definitely the better, more experienced team but the reason I believe Charlotte will compete is because Miami's weaknesses are Charlotte's strengths.  The PG and C positions are the Heat's main weaknesses since they are a really small team.  This helps the Bobcats because their best players who can carry this team are center Al Jefferson and point guard Kemba Walker.  They also have a young, athletic SF in Michael Kidd-Gilchirst who can try and contain Lebron.  The health of Dwayne Wade will also be crucial because if he's at 100% then Miami is a totally different team.  Expect the Heat to pull through in this series, but they will be tested by big Al and company. 

My Prediction: Heat win series 4-2

The Final Four is here at last

One of the most exciting sports weekend's of the year is finally here! In about one hour, 75,000 people will jam into AT&T Stadium to see who will have the right to play for the National Championship on Monday night.  It has been a thrilling tournament full of crazy upsets, buzzer beaters, and games that have driven the loyal fans of these teams insane.  For most of these players, this will be their biggest basketball moment of their lives. Every bucket, every turnover, every loose ball is so crucial when you get this late in the tournament.  All four teams that are still remaining are playing their best basketball at the right time, and it should lead to some great games tonight.  So as you get ready to watch the action later, here is some information on the teams playing today and what you need to know.  



#7 Connecticut v.s. #1 Florida 6:09 p.m.  
The first of the two semi-final games tonight features a rematch from early December.  In that game, Connecticut stunned Florida at the buzzer with Shabazz Napier's put back jumper.  The Gators haven't looked back, winning 30 straight games with such ease that even the Miami Heat are impressed.  However, this will be a totally different game than the one from four months ago.  Both teams have improved a lot since that first match-up and it will be interesting to see who asserts their will on the other.  The No. 1 seeded Florida Gators (36-2) without a doubt have the most experience out of any of the remaining teams.  Billy Donovan is looking for his third National Title in eight seasons.  They start four seniors and one sophomore, (Young, Yeguete, Prather, Wilbekin, Frazier) and have been in the last three Elite Eight's so they are used to big games.  On the flip side, No. 7 seed UConn (30-8) doesn't have as much experience, but they have a lineup that has come up huge late in the season.  It's led by senior guard Shabazz Napier and juniors Ryan Boatright and DeAndre Daniels with Niels Giffey and Phillip Nolan rounding out the starting lineup.  This is second-year head coach Kevin Ollie's first trip to the Final Four.  UConn is also the first 7 seed to advance to the Final Four since the tournament field expanded in 1985.  

How the Huskies handle the full court press of Florida is a big factor in this game along with finding enough scoring outside of Napier.  The Boatright-Frazier matchup is huge because the point guards, Wilbekin and Napier, will find a way to put up a lot of points, but which ever off-guard can have the bigger game will be huge for his team.  Florida will try to assert its will inside with Young and Yeguete, but UConn has solid bigs of their own to try and match the Gators.  Amida Brimah, the 7-foot center for the Huskies gives them a spark defensively and protects the rim.    Expect this game to be low scoring with a lot of half court sets.  Both teams are very strong defensively so good shots will be hard to come by.  

My prediction: Florida 65 Connecticut 60. 


#8 Kentucky v.s. #2 Wisconsin 8:49 p.m. 
John Calipari's Wildcats were expected to be here since they were ranked in the top five in the preseason but after an array of bad losses that quickly changed.  Losses to Arkansas (2x), LSU, and South Carolina lowered those lofty expectations for the tournament.  Well, it looks like those young talented freshmen found the magic touch and are playing their best basketball of the season.  Their starting lineup includes Aaron and Andrew Harrison, Julius Randle, Dakari Johnson and James Young.  Willie Cauley-Stein was their starting center, but he suffered an injury in the Sweet Sixteen that will keep him out of the Final Four.  Kentucky (28-10) is probably the most talented team out of the four, but its all about if that talent can come together.  It looks as though it has since they had huge upsets over Wichita St., Louisville, and Michigan.  

Wisconsin is usually a very defensively oriented team under head coach Bo Ryan, but this is definitely the most talented team he has ever had.  This is Ryan's first trip to the Final Four and it is well deserving because he is one of the better coaches in college basketball.  They average 73.5 ppg, which feels like about 100 when you play in the Big Ten.  The Badgers are led by freshman forward Frank Kaminsky, and sharp shooters Ben Brust and Sam Dekker.  Traevon Jackson and Josh Gasser provide stability at the guard position.  Wisconsin (30-7), a lot like Kentucky, went through a dry spell in the middle of the season where they had a hard time winning games.  The Badgers own the title of the most efficient team in the country shooting 46% as a team and only committing 8 turnovers per game, which is #1 in the country.  

When looking at this matchup, the thing that jumps out right away is the battle down low between Kaminsky and Randle.  They are the best players on their respective teams and lead them on both offense and defense.  Both teams can put up points, but the difference in this game is the Harrison twins.  The real reason that Kentucky is still playing today is because of their improvement in March.  They have matured beyond their years and look like a team destined to win it all.  If we see the Wildcat team we saw against Michigan expect another Kentucky win, if not Wisconsin could definitely lock up defensively and pull out this win. 

My prediction: Kentucky 71  Wisconsin 64

Dayton v.s. Goliath

Well, its the matchup everyone saw coming: Dayton v.s. Florida for a trip to the Final Four. Not exactly.  Florida was the favorite to bring home a National Championship coming into the tournament so for them to be playing tonight in the Elite Eight is no surprise.  Dayton on the other hand is a complete shocker to most.  The No. 11 seeded Flyers have had to claw their way just to get to this point.  Their first game in the tournament was a  60-59 upset of Ohio State followed by a 55-53 victory over the heavily favored Syracuse Orangemen.  These were two very impressive wins for a team that has gone unnoticed up until this week.  The last team to beat Dayton not named St. Joe's came back on January 25th against Rhode Island.  The Flyers added another tournament win this past Thursday when they took care of Stanford 82-72 in a game where they just dominated in all aspects offensively.  This run by Dayton is reminiscent of the great cinderella stories made by VCU, George Mason, and Davidson.  

Next up for Dayton is your number 1 team in the country: The Florida Gators.  On paper this is a complete mismatch against a team who has a lot more size and defends better than just about anyone in the country.  Beating the Gators will take a lot more than what it took to defeat the Buckeyes or the Orange.  The Gators will full court press for the entire game, they have great perimeter/interior defenders who are all athletic and can drive opposing coaches nuts.  It's also worth mentioning that Florida is a very deep team and very efficient offensively to go along with the teams incredible defense.  They are arguably the most complete team in the country, which is why they were deserving of the number one overall seed.  Dayton can certainly pull off the upset today but here is what they will have to do.  Since the Flyers lack the size to compete with the Gators inside, they will have to get big games from their guards Khari Price and Vee Sanford.  Dayton has a lot of depth as well since they play 11 players regularly in their rotation.  Athleticism is another huge strength for both teams and a big factor in this game will be who can control pace and get easy buckets in transition.  The longer Dayton can hang in the game, the more pressure it puts on a team that really hasn't dealt with that much pressure at all this season.  There are many interesting matchup's in this one, but I think the one everyone needs to take a serious look at is the battle of the bigs, Kavanaugh-Young.  Kavanaugh needs to stay out of foul trouble since the Flyers are thin on their front line.  Florida is expected to roll over Dayton, and they easily could do that, but if there is anything we can take away from this year's tournament it is to expect the unexpected.   

This Week is for the Little Guys

Championship week is one of the best weeks of the entire College Basketball season.  There will certainly be some great games in  the big conferences like the ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12 (All of which will probably send at least six teams to the Tourney).  But this week is all about the conferences and teams more importantly that the average fan might not know anything about.  All week long, every single non-power conference championship game will be shown somewhere on the ESPN family of networks for the entire country to watch. The one thing I've learned over the years watching these games is to expect the unexpected.  Unlike the bigger conferences who send multiple teams to the dance, these smaller conferences only get to send one, making it do or die, winner take all.  This sets the stage for fantastic finishes, storming  the court, and some March "Madness."  
There are 32 conferences in College Basketball, with only six of those being power conferences.  Along with these six, there will only be a few other conferences that send multiple schools to the tournament.  So over the course of this next week, most of these conference champions will be the only representatives from their conferences.  These championship games will have so much emotion to them that it will feel like their Super Bowl.  The winning teams always go crazy and jump around uncontrollably like a little kid in a candy store.  For the teams who don't find a way to win, it is easy to see the frustration on their faces.  To get that close to the dance and fall short is hard to deal with.  It's truly something that you just won't get with the Big Ten because half of those teams are already going and don't have to improve their resume's this week.  
We have already seen two big upsets as Tournament teams from last year Belmont and FGCU lost at home in their conference championships over the weekend.  Florida Gulf Coast became the first 15 seed to ever make the sweet sixteen last year, but will not be going this time around.  In their places is Eastern Kentucky and Mercer.  Expect plenty of other upsets to take place this week and especially when the tournament gets going next week.  This year especially since parity in college basketball might be at an all-time high.  There is no team this year where you look at and say that whoever they play will be an automatic win.  Could this finally be the year a 16 beats a 1? We almost got that last year when Southern lost to Gonzaga by only six points.  I'm not saying it will happen, but don't be stunned if it does.  So as you sit back and watch these conference championships, think about the importance of these games for teams like Weber State, Delaware, Robert Morris, and all the other small schools who want to see their name called sunday night. It's going to be a great couple of weeks, so as former WR Terrell Owens once said, "get your popcorn ready."