The only good part of last week for the Bills was that they came away with the win. Coming away with a one point win at home against Minnesota while losing your two starting running backs isn't exactly what the doctor ordered. That's not to take anything away from Orton, Watkins, Chandler, and Hogan who all came up huge on that final game winning drive, but the Bills simply need to play better this week if they expect to win on the road. With Spiller out for the season and Fred Jackson out at least two weeks, Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown step into the starting roles at running back. It is still uncertain as to how Nathaniel Hackett will distribute the carries but both will probably be a big part of the game plan for this sunday. Both Dixon and Brown were added in the offseason (Dixon from San Francisco and Brown from Philadelphia). Bryce Brown is more of a speed guy who likes to get to the edge while Dixon prefers to go straight through defenders and try to get tough yards. They complement each other very well and against a stout New York defense, the Bills will need big games out of both guys.
The big story of the NFL from last week was star wide receiver Percy Harvin getting traded from the Seahawks to the Jets. Today is Harvin's debut for the green and white and he should be someone Buffalo keeps an eye on. New York is his third different team in as many seasons for the very talented, but troubled wide receiver. He figures to bring a lot of help to a young quarterback in Geno Smith with one of the worst receiving cores in the league. Eric Decker, the Jets offseason acquisition from Denver, has put together a solid season and figures to be the number two receiver with the addition of Harvin. The identity of the Jets is running the football behind Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson. New York averages 135 yards on the ground per game and should be the toughest matchup for the Bills run defense up to this point in the season.
Three keys to the game:
1. Turnover Battle: The Bills were extremely fortunate to come away with a win last week after turning the ball over four times. Kyle Orton has brought more life to the passing game, but his turnover problems need to change if Buffalo wants to get a division win today.
2. Force the Jets to beat you with Geno: Since the Jets have two very capable running backs who can go off, it is important for the Bills to take that away. The Vikings ran for over 150 last week so if Buffalo can keep New York under 100 for the game that gives them a good chance. Geno Smith has been known to make big mistakes so the more he throws the ball, the better for the Bills defense.
3. Red Zone: The Buffalo Bills are one of the worst red zone offenses in the league, although things have improved under Kyle Orton. Field goals will not be enough in this game as the Bills will have to punch in a few touchdowns against a very good Jets defense.
My Prediction: It's a lot to ask out of Boobie Dixon and Bryce Brown to just jump in and fix an already struggling running game. Buffalo will struggle to move the ball consistently, while I question the Bills ability to stop the Jets on the ground. The Bills have more flaws than we all thought and the Jets will expose those today. Also, playing in the meadowlands has never been fun for the Bills.
New York Jets 23 Buffalo Bills 16
The Bills first six opponents this year have a combined record of 22-14 showing just how difficult the schedule has been. Coming out of that stretch at 3-3 has given Buffalo a chance to rattle off some wins in this middle part of the season. These next six games are hands down the easiest games on the Bills schedule as the combined record of these next six opponents is 11-24. The first game of this stretch is today as the 3-3 Buffalo Bills host the 2-4 Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota was a rebuilding team before losing Adrian Peterson for the season and now they are relying on rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater to lead this team. This marks his third start of his NFL career and is coming off of a double digit loss to a team the Bills beat in Detroit. In fact, every single game for Minnesota this year has been decided by double digits. The Vikings might be young and still a few years away from doing damage in a tough NFC, but they do have some good playmakers the Bills must be aware of. At wide receiver, they have the speedster in Cordarelle Patterson who does his damage in the passing game and on returns. Patterson has the ability to change a game with his skill on kick off and punt returns. Greg Jennings brings veteran leadership to a young Vikings offense and he is Minnesota's leading receiver.
Coming off of a tough home loss to our division rival, this is close to a must win game for the Bills playoff hopes. This is arguably the easiest game on the Bills schedule so taking care of business is essential to keeping pace with New England. This marks as Kyle Orton's third start as a Bill, and yes, his first without the stache! The offense looked sluggish early last week but eventually was able to put up points. In the end, the defense was what let the Bills down last week and this poses as a favorable match up for the stout defensive line. They only picked up 2 sacks last week and with a rookie QB and young offensive line, expect Schwartz to dial up some creative blitz schemes to try and confuse Bridgewater. Another thing that must change is the run game. 65 yards isn't going to cut it, especially when you play Tom Brady. A team that's identity is running the football has simply struggled to do so all season. If the Bills want any shot at a post season berth, they must change that today...... Yes I'm talking to you CJ Spiller wake up. Without further or due, here are some keys to today's matchup:
1. Start Strong: Buffalo has gotten off to slow starts in their last two games against New England and Detroit. Get off to a good start, get the crowd going and don't let Minnesota think they have a chance. The longer the Vikings can hang around, the more pressure it puts on the Bills.
2. Be aware of Patterson: Cordarrelle Patterson has the ability to hurt teams in both the return and passing games. Special teams hasn't been much of a factor yet this season, but the Bills better bring their A game today because one mistake and Patterson will take it in for six.
3. Can we get a CJ Spiller sighting? Six carries for 19 yards isn't going to cut it. Spiller has ZERO touchdowns through six games this season and I see this as a possible game for him to turn it around. Hopefully Hackett can get him some touches early on and get him involved in the offense because the Bills need his explosiveness.
My Prediction: I expect Minnesota to keep it close for a little while but the combination of Buffalo's stout defense wanting to make up for last week, and the potential of our running game, the Bills are too much in this one.
Buffalo 30 Minnesota 13
Last week was Jim Schwartz week as the Bills went into Detroit and beat the defensive coordinator's former team. Schwartz got carried off the field by some of the players and it was a great way to cap off the Ralph Wilson era. Now as we start a new era in Buffalo, the Bills look to beat a very familiar foe in the New England Patriots. It's a game Bills fans and players have been waiting for all off-season, none more than former Patriot Brandon Spikes. Spikes, now with the Bills, sent out some very bold tweets about playing against his former team back in August: "@BrandonSpikes51- It's icing on my cake to hand the #Patriots two big L's this year #justwatch." Spikes also referred to the New England fans as "massholes" in a later tweet. Spikes will have a great chance to get revenge on his former team today at Ralph Wilson Stadium as first place in on the line in the AFC East.
The New England Patriots come in at 3-2 after knocking off the previously undefeated Bengals at home. In the two meetings last year, New England defeated Buffalo and the last time Buffalo won came back in 2011. That win was the only time the Bills beat the Pats in the last decade..... However, if there was ever a time for the Bills to beat the team that has been their kryptonite, it is now. Brady and the offense have certainly had their struggles against teams like Oakland, Kansas City, and Miami; All of whom aren't necessarily the creams of the crop in the AFC. Buffalo also leads the league in sacks so going against a young, and inexperienced offensive line could lead to Brady seeing the turf a lot this afternoon. The Patriots do have some strong receivers in Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, both of whom have given the Bills fits in the past. Gronkowski's size in particular, could potentially pose as a big threat to the Bills secondary. New England brings in an opportunistic defense that lives off turnovers. Considering the Bills have thrown a pick six in consecutive games, that looks pretty scary. The Bills need the Kyle Orton we saw in the second half last week. He was poised, under control and led Buffalo back to win from down 14 on the road. If they can play turnover free, and keep a steady balance of run-pass, I expect the Bills to have a great chance in today's ball game. In this divisional matchup, there are many keys to dissect but here are the biggest things to look out for.
1. Be Creative: Enough of our plain, vanilla offense. Either take a shot deep early in the game, or maybe run a sweep with Watkins just to find easy ways to get our playmakers out in space. Being predictable against New England usually leads to problems.
2. Gronkowski Lights up Buffalo: Gronkowski has had some huge games in the past against his hometown team. Really look for New England to target him a lot, especially in the red zone.
3. Woods Ending His Slump: New England loves to take away a team's #1 receiver and it helps that they have Darrelle Revis to cover Sammy Watkins today. With that being said, expect Robert Woods to get a lot of targets and hopefully he will get out of his slump.
My Prediction: This is going to be a highly competitive, emotional game. Pegula being at the game today will energize the crowd and put a lot of pressure on New England to get out to an early lead. I think the combination of being at home, and having the stronger defense will help Buffalo pull out a HUGE home win!
Buffalo 24 New England 20
Kyle Orton has only been on the Buffalo Bills for just over a month, and now he is being asked to save a fading season. After a great 2-0 start, Buffalo has fallen back to the pack in the AFC East with two straight defeats to San Diego and Houston. EJ Manuel has the second lowest QBR in the NFL and a mediocre 58 completion pct, leading to the switch at QB. Orton is a ten year veteran who is now with his fifth different team. Orton is the epitome of an average quarterback, but he brings a sense of stability to a team that really needs it. It was becoming obvious that EJ was the one thing holding this team back from where they could go. With Orton, expect the offense to get away from the read option that was used with Manuel. Orton doesn't pose a threat with his legs, but his accuracy and deep ball throws are an improvement over Manuel.
That was really the main reason for the switch as Manuel failed to get the ball to his great play makers down the field. Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins are way to good to go a game combining for less than 50 yards. Now the recent struggles can't be put all on EJ, I think the coaching staff needs to get better. Last week: 44 passes and 23 runs. Week 3: 40 passes, 22 runs. Now that is a recipe for disaster with a young QB. I know in the San Diego game they fell down early and they were kind of forced into passing it every down, but last week in a game that they led for much of, they avoided running even though it was working. Establishing the run early is the biggest key today.
The Detroit Lions are one of the most complete teams in the entire NFL. They have always had a potent offense, but now they have the defense to back it up. They stop the run very well, and get a lot of pressure on the QB making this look like a tough game for a young offensive line and new quarterback. On offense, they have one of the best duo's in the league in Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson. The run game isn't particularly great, but Reggie Bush is capable of exploding at any time. The dangerous thing with this Lions team is that they can win in a multitude of ways. They are built to win in a shootout, or in a grind it out low scoring game. Being at home certainly helps too as Detroit is off to a 2-0 start at Ford Field this season. This looks to be one of the toughest games on the Bills schedule and a lot will need to happen to pull out the win. Here are the biggest keys to achieving that this week:
1. Don't fall behind: With a new QB, falling behind early in that raucous stadium is not good. Get an early score, run the ball, and quiet that crowd.
2. Don't let 81 beat you: Calvin Johnson is the best wide receiver in the league and is capable of 200+ yards any given sunday. Containing him and keeping them away from those big plays could take Stafford out of his rhythm.
3. Jim Schwartz: Bills defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz was the Lions head coach from '09 to '13. This is a revenge game for him and with it he brings a huge advantage for Buffalo. Having an inside source who knows the personnel can be huge in a game with two great defenses.
I expect the Bills to put up a huge fight against a very good team, but ultimately falling short. Being at home, and having the better QB will make the difference.
Detroit 24 Buffalo 17
