Playoffs? You Kidding Me!

It is week 13 of the NFL season and both the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills have a winning record.  How rare is this? This is the first time ever that Cleveland and Buffalo have played against each other with winning records after Thanksgiving.  Cleveland is one of four teams in the AFC North that sits at 7-4 or better,  just outside of a potential wild card spot.  Buffalo comes in at 6-5, only a game behind a whole slew of teams at 7-4.  With that being said, this might be considered the biggest Browns-Bills game in a long time considering the playoff spots that are up for grabs.  

Cleveland is coached by Mike Pettine, former defensive coordinator for Buffalo.  The Browns have used an above average defense, and an average offense to get to seven wins so far this season.  Brian Hoyer has had his share of struggles at quarterback this season, but more times than not, he has delivered when needed.  Take last week for example where Hoyer threw three picks at Atlanta, but led a last minute drive to set up the game winning field goal.  Josh Gordon, who was the NFL's leading receiver a year ago, returned last weekend from a 10-game suspension and adds another dimension to this Cleveland Browns offense.  They already have a solid running game, and offensive line to go along with Hoyer, but Gordon gives the Browns a true receiving threat all over the field and could make things difficult for Gilmore and Graham at cornerback.  Cleveland has a defense that should apply a ton of pressure against a weak Buffalo offensive line.  Establishing the run for both teams is huge for opening up the passing game for these average quarterbacks.  

Buffalo is coming off of their most impressive victory this season, a 38-3 blow out in Detroit against the New York Jets.  In the game, the Bills were impressive in the red zone, ran the ball effectively, got a huge play on special teams, and dominated defensively.  Kyle Orton was under control the whole game as he made this his fourth straight game without an interception.  The story of the game however, was Robert Woods and his 9 catches for 118 yards and a touchdown.  The Jets weren't about to have Sammy Watkins beat them again, so while he received a majority of double teams, Woods took advantage of single coverage.  It will be interesting to see how Cleveland tries to cover Buffalo's wide receivers.  I expect the Browns number one cornerback, Joe Haden, to be on Sammy Watkins for the majority of this game.  Here are some more keys to this huge AFC contest between playoff hopefuls... Yes, I repeat, the playoffs are still a possibility for both.  

Three Keys to the Game:

1. Win the Battle Up Front:  This is the matchup of the game: Cleveland's O-line v.s. Buffalo's D-line.  Both have been super all year so something has to give.  It is a big reason for why the Browns have had so much success on the ground so if Buffalo can get in the backfield, expect some big plays from Mario, Dareus, and company.  

2. The Pettine Factor:  This one works both ways.  Yes, we know about Pettine's schemes defensively so that could help the Buffalo offense, but on the flip side, Pettine knows the Bills offensive schemes from being with the Buffalo Bills last year.  Which side will get more of an advantage from this?

3.  Josh Gordon v.s. Sammy Watkins:  Two of the best young receivers in the league square off in a must win game for both squads.  The weather is expected to be rainy tomorrow so on a hard day to pass the ball, which receiver will come up and make some big plays? 

My Prediction:   These are two evenly matched teams with a ton still left to play for on both sides.  I like Buffalo's defense just a little more and I feel like the Bills are due for a true home win.  

Buffalo 23   Cleveland 20

Rock the..... Ford Field?

Buffalo, NY

Detroit, MI

It has been a very difficult couple of weeks for the Bills and the city of Buffalo.  I mean 15 days ago, Buffalo found themselves at home up by 10 early in the 4th quarter against a very good Chiefs team, ready to get to 6-3.  One fourth quarter collapse, and a horrendous road loss in Miami has the Bills sitting at 5-5 for this must win contest tonight against the New York Jets.  This marks the Bills first game on Monday Night since the opener of the 2009 season, but it wasn't scheduled that way.  This game, which was originally scheduled for the 23rd, got bumped back one day and had to shift locations to Ford Field in Detroit home of the Detroit Lions.  This was due to the record setting amount of lake-effect snow that accumulated in the south towns of Western New York.  Places like Orchard Park, Lancaster, and Hamburg received over 60" of snow.  There was a travel ban in place in most areas as the roads and main highways were shut down.  The worst snow storm in Buffalo since the Blizzard of '77 has caused hard times for the city so this is more than just a football game.  

With the Bills barely hanging around in the playoff race, this is a must win along with most of the remaining games.  The team was unable to practice for most of this week due to the weather back home.  Now they find themselves in Detroit awaiting a Jets team that has one thing on its mind: revenge.  Four weeks ago Buffalo rolled into the Meadowlands and stomped on the Jets 43-23 causing 6 turnovers.  QB Geno Smith was replaced for backup Michael Vick, who also plans on starting tonight's game.  New York is coming off of a huge upset victory over Pittsburgh and had a bye week to prepare for tonight's game.  That along with the Bills being off of the practice field for much of the week gives the Jets a much better chance this time around.  Orton is coming off his worst performance as a Buffalo Bill and needs to look much better tonight.  Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon figure to be a part of the offense once again at running back with a limited Fred Jackson.  The big thing once again coming in is the Bills red zone offense.  The worst in the league, Buffalo failed to score a touchdown last week in Miami.  Here are a few other keys to this divisional matchup in Detroit.  

Three Keys to the Game:

1. Ballhawks Have To Make Plays: Six turnovers.  Rarely does an opponent give the ball up that much so the Bills secondary, which consists of Graham, Gilmore, Williams, and Searcy needs to make plays and turn the Jets over.  Especially now that Leodis Mckelvin is out for the season.  

2. Sammy, Sammy, Sammy: The Buffalo Bills are 5-1 when Sammy Watkins gets 30 or more receiving yards in a game (the one loss being last week to Miami).  On the flip side, they are 0-4 when he is held under 30 yards.  Needless to say, we need to get him the ball early and often if we want to see success offensively.  

3. Keep Vick In The Pocket:  Even in his older days, Michael Vick is still a very mobile quarterback.  In the first matchup when he replaced Geno Smith, the Jets offense seemed to move the ball much better after the switch was made.  Most of that was due to Vick's running ability on top of his arm strength.  The Bills need to apply a lot of pressure on him, while being smart and disciplined at the same time.  

My Prediction: After two really tough losses and with everything that has happened to the city of Buffalo, expect Buffalo to come out hot.  I see the Jets keeping this game close, but for the Bills to pull out a huge division win and move back above .500.

Buffalo Bills 24  New York Jets 19

Orton & Banged Up Offense face Red Hot Chiefs

As the Buffalo Bills start the second half of their season this weekend, it is impossible to ignore how tough the remaining schedule is.  Six out of those eight opponents are at least 5-3, the only exceptions being the Jets and Raiders.  The Kansas City Chiefs come into Orchard Park this weekend rolling.  Winners of three straight and four of their last five, the Chiefs have found their winning formula.  Kansas City is one of the most fundamentally sound teams in the league.  They lead the NFL in rushing with a now healthy Jamaal Charles and Kniles Davis.  Quarterback Alex Smith has been very steady in his two years in Kansas City only throwing 11 interceptions in 24 games.  The Chiefs are led by Dwayne Bowe at wide out and Travis Kelce at tight end.  Overall, Kansas City has the 26th ranked offense in the league, but their biggest strength is the defense, led by Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Justin Houston, and Eric Berry.  With the Bills poor offensive line, the Chiefs should be able to apply a ton of pressure on Kyle Orton.  

Hopefully the bye week gave the Bills some time to work in more creative schemes into the offense.  Even though the Bills won by 20 points against New York, the vanilla offense was still on display.  Luckily, the Bills were bailed out by six Jets turnovers.  The play calling isn't the only thing that is questionable at One Bills Drive.  Sammy Watkins left practice on Wednesday with a groin injury while Fred Jackson is trying to make a comeback after his knee injury in week 7.  Both players are listed as questionable for Sunday.  Rushing the ball will be crucial for Buffalo this week going against this very strong run defense.  Specifically on first down, where the Bills are near the bottom of the NFL.  Avoiding 3rd & long will help the Bills move the ball more effectively and keep the pressure off of Orton.  Another thing to keep an eye on for this game is Kyle Orton going against his former team.  In a very close matchup between two 5-3 teams, it could very well come down to which QB makes the fewest mistakes.  

Three Keys to the Game:

1. Give Orton Some Time: To me, this game comes down to Buffalo's O-line v.s Kansas City's D-line.  If they can give Orton time to sit in the pocket, he should find holes in that secondary.  If not, then it could be a long day.  Dialing up some play-action passes could open things up as well.  

2. Know Your Opponent: The Buffalo Bills should take a long, hard look at last year's game against the Chiefs.  The Bills doubled them in yards, yet lost the game because of crucial turnovers.  Understand that Kansas City won't kill themselves with careless penalties and turnovers.  No turnovers, control the clock, and capitalize when you get in the red zone.  

3. Start Strong: Coming back against the Chiefs is always a tall task so getting an early lead in the 1st quarter is crucial.  It has been a problem for the Bills, especially at home so get the crowd going early with some big plays.  

My Prediction: Huge game for the AFC Wild Card picture with two 5-3 teams.  The Bills being at home and coming off a bye looks good, but they always seem to lose every game I go to.  That being said, I like the Chiefs in this one.  

Kansas City 24   Buffalo 21  OT