Anyone who watched Buffalo's defense dominate the league's top offense last week would tell you that the Bills should steamroll the lowly 2-12 Oakland Raiders. That would ultimately put the Bills playoff hopes on the line for one game next week at Gillette Stadium against the New England Patriots. However, Buffalo will need to do more than just show up to get out of California with their ninth win of the season. Although it hasn't shown in the win column, Oakland is a young team that has been very competitive in defeat. Their biggest win of the season came on Thursday Night Football against the Chiefs. Rookie quarterback David Carr has been the Raiders starter for all fourteen weeks and has shown signs of improvement, even with limited offensive weapons. Running back Latavius Murray has put together some big games late in the season and he is the guy Buffalo needs to put most of their attention on. Oakland's offense might be near the bottom of the league, but the defense has shown how good they can be. It starts with rookie linebacker Khalil Mack. He has put together a great season and is up for defensive rookie of the year. Buffalo's O-line held up against Green Bay last week and the same needs to happen this week if they want to win. The Raiders are susceptible in the run game so with CJ Spiller back, and with Fred, Bryce Brown, and Boobie Dixon, expect the Bills to keep the ball on the ground a lot today.
Three Keys to the Game:
1. Punch the Ball in the Endzone: The offense only produced four field goals last week and got bailed out with a Marcus Thigpen punt return touchdown. This time, the Bills can't let an inferior team hang around, so scoring touchdowns instead of field goals is big for this struggling offense.
2. Carr Can't be Calm: Derek Carr has been pressured a lot throughout the season and today figures to follow that trend. The best defensive line in the league needs to get pressure and put Oakland in 3rd & long situations.
3. No Scoreboard Watching: Since today's game is at 4:25, the other impactful games will already be decided. Focus on this game and if Buffalo gets the help they needed, then great.
My Prediction: I expect Oakland to keep it tight for awhile before a much more talented team in the Bills pulls away in the fourth quarter.
Buffalo 26 Oakland 14
Playing on the road against Peyton Manning is bad enough, now the Bills must face their second straight future hall-of-famer in Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. The Packers come in to this matchup as arguably the hottest/best team in the league. The explosive Green Bay offense is led at receiver by Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb and by Eddie Lacy at running back. Lacy is questionable for today's game, so if he can't go, UB product James Starks should receive a lot of carries. With the Bills stout defense, this figures to be a big matchup of heavyweights. The Green Bay Packers have a very average defense based on the numbers. Their main offseason acquisition was defensive end Julius Peppers and along with Clay Matthews, they have a very solid front seven. The secondary is where they can be exploited, like what Atlanta showed on Monday Night Football last week. Kyle Orton needs to show great improvement and get the ball out of his hands early if the Bills want to have a chance. Woods, Watkins, and Hogan should be able to find openings in that porous Packers secondary.
With the Packers trying to put a strangle hold on the NFC North division, the Bills are teetering on the edge of the playoff picture with just three weeks to go. Here are my three keys to the game.
1. Apply Pressure With Four: Aaron Rodgers not only can beat a defense with his arm, but he can do so with his feet. The Bills defensive line failed to bring Manning to the ground at all last week, so in order to keep the Green Bay offense on the sideline, Buffalo must get to Rodgers without having to blitz.
2. Take Some Deep Shots: Green Bay throws more 20+ yard passes than any other team in the NFL. The Bills should take a similar approach to last week and establish the run, then take a shot off of play action. Keeping Rodgers and that offense off the field is the best way to beat Green Bay.
3. Special Teams: The Packers have a clear offensive advantage and the Bills have a clear defensive advantage. Whoever can gain an edge in field position, get a big punt return, or win the turnover margin could be the difference in this one.
My Prediction:
The Bills are 3-0 this year against the NFC North, but the Packers are the class of this division. The hottest team in the NFL should continue to roll offensively even on the road, ending any possibility of Buffalo reaching the postseason.
Green Bay 31 Buffalo 20
